Prediction 2021: Everything You Believe Is Wrong
It’s not really a prediction. It’s more of a suggestion, really. As I had conversations with people in 2020 — whether it was people asking me for advice, discussions with peers, or sessions with my own mentors — it became increasingly clear that a lot of what we talked about was focused around a belief that was not what one of us thought it was. And if we look in traditional and social media, it becomes even more clear.
2+2 = 5
We learn that 2+2=4. That’s a fact, right? Not a belief. It’s a fact, but it’s a simplification. Let’s take the number 2.4. If we round 2.4, we get 2. If we take 2.4 + 2.4 you get 4.8, which rounds to 5. So, for large values of 2, 2+2=5.
Often we learn or adopt simplifications like this to help us navigate a complex world. I know I make assumptions from observations that are incomplete — both the observation AND the assumption.
A common example today is the assumptions we make about people’s lives from what we see from them on social media. Or it could be a co-worker who seems to be more successful or getting more attention than you think they deserve. In both cases you develop a belief that is a simplification of a more complex situation.
Can you teach curiosity?
I recently asked that question on Twitter. One the biggest challenges we face today is how much certainty people have in things and how unwilling they are to entertain that those beliefs can be wrong, or at least incomplete. I guarantee that a significant amount of what you believe is not what you think it is. I challenge you to figure it out. Isn’t that part of what curiosity is?
So my 2021 prediction: if you don’t do anything about it, a lot of what you currently believe will still be wrong. If you are curious and explore? Then you will have new stuff you believe that may be wrong. Maybe you will understand larger values of what you used to believe. But you will be making progress.
